Young people are taking a serious hit as Australian house prices may soar 15% in the next 18 months!

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Young Australians are taking a serious mortgage hit
The cost of loans for first-time buyers has soared dramatically over the past three years, proving they are one of the groups hardest hit by Australia's housing affordability and cost of living crisis.
KPMG, one of the Big Four accounting firms, says lending pressures are putting an almost unprecedented strain on first-time buyers, the majority of whom are young buyers in the Australian market.
On Monday, KPMG released its latest Australian real estate report, Residential Real Estate Market Outlook September 2023, which says first-time buyers spend about half of their average income on mortgage payments.
This compares to a third of the average first-time buyer's income three years ago. This shows just how hard the average Australian and the average home buyer is being hit by the continuing rise in housing costs.
The report says house prices across Australia are expected to soar by around 15 percent over the next year and a half.
Apartment prices across Australia are expected to rise by around 10 percent over the same period.
Record levels of immigration, as well as a lack of supply and construction are expected to be forces pushing up prices.
However, KPMG said that lending pressures affecting those at the bottom of the property ladder could be another factor in the slowdown in house prices.
Dr. Brendan Lynn, chief economist at KPMG, says: "Despite higher interest rates, supply constraints are likely to continue to impact property pricein the short term and lead to sustained price rises in most markets."
"And a number of factors will have the opposite effect, not least of which is lending pressure. First-time buyers now need to use around half of their income to pay their mortgage, up sharply from a third three years ago."
"We estimate that around $350 billion of loans will mature this year, representing half of all fixed rate credit and covering 880,000 Australian households. The remaining 38% of fixed rate credit, comprising around 450,000 loan facilities, will mature in 2024 and beyond. Some homeowners who previously locked in low interest rates may not be able to afford them and refinance to lower and competitive rates."
However, despite the challenges, some suburban areas remain affordable for first-time buyers.
But with the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate rising from 0.1% in April 2022 to 4.1% in June 2023 and holding steady, there has been a surge in enquiries for term homes from first-time buyers.
Much of this is due to the new stamp duty exemption for first time buyers.

KPMG: Australian house prices may soar 15% in next 18 months
One of Australia's Big Four accounting firms, KPMG, says house prices across Australia may soar 15 percent in the next 18 months.
In the Residential Real Estate Market Outlook September 2023 report released on Monday, KPMG Chief Economist Dr. Brendan Rynne said a number of factors are expected to push up house prices.
"Despite high interest rates, the factors affecting real estate prices in the short term are likely to be primarily supply constraints and lead to continued price increases in most markets in FY2024. Prices for detached homes and condominiums will accelerate further in the next fiscal year as the supply of homes continues to be constrained by scarcity of available land, declining levels of approvals, and slower or more costly construction activity."
The recovery of post-epidemic migration is also expected to put significant pressure on housing demand.
House prices across Australia will rise by 4.9% in the next nine months and soar by 9.4% in the year to June 2025, according to KPMG's State Capital Cities Real Estate Report.
Apartment prices are expected to rise at a slightly lower rate, 3.1% by June 2025, before rising a further 6% over the next 12 months.
Meanwhile, KPMG is also predicting that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates in the next financial year.
Dr. Rehn says: "Supply issues will combine with several other factors to push up prices, and these include increased demand due to higher immigration, the expected interest rate cuts going into FY2025, and looser lending conditions."
KPMG said high rental costs and low vacancy rates could make Australians more likely to own their own properties.
"If renting is more affordable, it could put downward pressure on house prices," the report shows.
"When the cost of renting is comparable to the cost of buying and owning a similar property, households may choose to own, potentially pushing up house prices."
The report said house prices in Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart were likely to rise above the national average over the next two years.　

Easing pressure on listings NSW Byron Bay drastically compresses short-term rental opening hours
In a bid to ease the pressure on the extreme shortage of listings in the long term rental market, the cap on how long homes in Byron Bay and Mullumbimby, NSW are allowed to be listed on short term rental platforms has been drastically reduced.
From September 26, 2024, short-term rentals in these areas will be limited to a maximum of 60 days per year when they are listed for rent on platforms such as Airbnb and Stayz.
The government hopes this new regulation will force more properties into the long term rental market, easing the pressure on housing for local residents as well as workers in key industries.
Tightening the restrictions was a local government proposal, and the NSW government announced its approval of the proposal on Monday. The Byron Bay local government area has been suffering from a lack of housing supply.
The local government initially proposed lowering the short-term rental cap from 180 days to 90 days. But the state government's Independent Planning Commission went a step further, recommending an outright reduction to 60 days, hoping to send a stronger signal to the market and encourage landlords to make substantial changes.
Some short-term rentals in popular tourist destinations are expected to be exempted. The Mayor of Byron Bay has welcomed the introduction of the new regulations and more details on their implementation will be set out in a planning report later in the year.
Byron Bay's beautiful coastal landscape attracts many tourists, and prior to the outbreak, Byron Bay received more than two million visitors a year. Short-term rental platforms have become an avenue for local landlords to earn more rent, leading to an increasingly tight supply of properties on the long term rental market.

Australia's housing market enters the spring selling season with buyers looking for these two things above all else
Pools are still the most desired amenity for buyers looking for a new home, but as the cost of living increases, more and more buyers are also looking for homes that come with granny flats and extra space.
Following the rapid rise in interest rates and house prices in recent years, the latest search data from Realestate.com.au shows that the number of home buyers searching specifically for dual living and granny flats has increased by 27% and 13% respectively in the last 12 months.
While the demand for extra space began during the epidemic when people were trapped in their homes, PropTrack economist Angus Moore believes the increase could be linked to families wanting to generate income.
He says: "We could also see people increasingly looking for homes with the option of renting out part of the house as a way of coping with higher mortgage costs."
On the other hand, buyers in cooler areas such as Tasmania and Victoria are more likely to want homes with heating or brick construction attached.
Given the continuing trend for working from home, buyers of both flats and detached houses want studies, but demand for water and sea views, gyms, gardens and sheds has fallen over the past 12 months.
Pets remain the most important consideration for renters, while demand for furnished properties has increased.
Despite the cost of living making life more difficult for families, the housing market has largely resisted gravity throughout 2023. In recent weeks, the spring selling season has continued to heat up as the weather begins to warm up and the number of auctions has steadily increased.
CoreLogic's preliminary auction liquidation data shows that 72 percent of the 2,550 homes auctioned last week were sold, nearly doubling the number of properties listed compared to last year.

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未来 18 个月内，澳大利亚房价可能会飙升 15%，这对年轻人来说是个沉重的打击！

澳大利亚年轻人正遭受严重的房贷冲击
过去三年来，首次购房者的贷款成本急剧飙升，证明他们是受澳大利亚住房可负担性和生活成本危机打击最严重的群体之一。
四大会计师事务所之一的毕马威会计师事务所（KPMG）称，贷款压力给首次购房者带来了前所未有的压力，而澳大利亚市场上的首次购房者大多是年轻买家。
本周一，毕马威发布了最新的澳大利亚房地产报告《2023 年 9 月住宅房地产市场展望》，报告称首次购房者的平均房贷支出约占其收入的一半。
相比之下，三年前首次购房者的平均收入仅为现在的三分之一。由此可见，房价的持续上涨对普通澳大利亚人和普通购房者的打击有多大。
报告称，未来一年半内，全澳房价预计将飙升约15%。
同期，全澳公寓价格预计将上涨约10%。
创纪录的移民数量以及供应和建设的不足预计将成为推动房价上涨的力量。
不过，毕马威会计师事务所（KPMG）表示，影响房产阶梯底层人群的贷款压力可能是房价放缓的另一个因素。
毕马威首席经济学家布伦丹-林恩（Brendan Lynn）博士说："尽管利率上升，但供应限制可能会在短期内继续影响房地产价格，并导致大多数市场的价格持续上涨。"
"而一些因素将产生相反的影响，其中最重要的是贷款压力。首次购房者现在需要用一半左右的收入来支付房贷，比三年前的三分之一大幅增加。"
"我们估计，今年将有约 3500 亿澳元的贷款到期，占所有固定利率信贷的一半，覆盖 88 万个澳大利亚家庭。其余 38% 的固定利率信贷，包括约 450,000 笔贷款，将于 2024 年及以后到期。一些之前锁定了低利率的房主可能无法承受低利率，需要重新贷款以获得更低且有竞争力的利率"。
不过，尽管面临挑战，一些郊区对于首次购房者来说仍然是负担得起的。
但随着澳大利亚储备银行的现金利率从2022年4月的0.1%升至2023年6月的4.1%并保持稳定，首次购房者对期房的咨询量激增。
这在很大程度上得益于首次购房者免印花税的新政策。

澳大利亚房市进入春季销售旺季，买家最看重以下两点
泳池仍然是买家在寻找新房时最希望拥有的设施，但随着生活成本的增加，越来越多的买家也开始寻找带有外婆公寓和额外空间的房屋。
随着近年来利率和房价的快速上涨，Realestate.com.au 的最新搜索数据显示，在过去 12 个月中，专门搜索双居房和外婆公寓的购房者人数分别增加了 27% 和 13%。
虽然对额外空间的需求始于人们被困在家中的疫情期间，但 PropTrack 经济学家安格斯-摩尔（Angus Moore）认为，这种增长可能与家庭希望创收有关。
他说："我们还可以看到，人们越来越多地寻找可以出租部分房屋的住宅，以此来应对较高的抵押贷款成本。"
另一方面，塔斯马尼亚州和维多利亚州等凉爽地区的购房者则更倾向于购买有暖气或砖混结构的房屋。
鉴于在家办公的趋势仍在继续，公寓和独立式住宅的买家都希望有书房，但对水景和海景、健身房、花园和棚屋的需求在过去 12 个月中有所下降。
宠物仍然是租房者最重要的考虑因素，而对带家具房产的需求则有所增加。
尽管生活成本使家庭生活更加困难，但在整个 2023 年，住房市场在很大程度上抵御了重力的影响。最近几周，随着天气开始转暖，春季销售旺季持续升温，拍卖数量稳步增加。
CoreLogic 的初步拍卖清算数据显示，在上周拍卖的 2550 套房屋中，72% 的房屋已售出，与去年相比，挂牌房产数量几乎翻了一番。